The UK is set for a changeable end to September, with rain affecting many areas on Wednesday while temperatures remain above the seasonal average. After a muggy start, temperatures are expected to reach the low 20s Celsius in several parts of the country, although they will remain below Tuesday’s exceptional 28°C.
A band of heavy rain moving eastward overnight is expected to linger across parts of eastern England and northeast Scotland until around Wednesday lunchtime. Behind the rain, sunny spells will develop, accompanied by scattered showers across western England, Wales, Northern Ireland and western Scotland. Some showers could be heavy or thundery, with blustery winds also possible.
Fresher air will gradually move eastward during the day, reducing humidity. Despite the changing conditions, temperatures are expected to remain well above the typical late-September average. Normal highs range from around 13°C in northern Scotland to 18°C in southern England.
Cooler Conditions Expected on Thursday
Wednesday night will become cooler, with temperatures falling into single figures in some areas. Thursday, the first day of October, is expected to be fresher, although temperatures could still remain 1–3°C above average in many locations.
Most areas are forecast to stay dry and sunny on Thursday, with only a few scattered showers. More widespread showery rain is expected on Friday, particularly across northern and western parts of the UK, while southern and eastern areas could remain largely dry.
Rainfall Needed After a Dry Summer
The latest rainfall comes as parts of England and Wales continue to recover from a significant period of dry weather. England and Wales had received only 58% of their typical September rainfall by 27 September, according to Met Office figures. Some locations had recorded only around one-third of their usual monthly rainfall.
Scotland and Northern Ireland have experienced wetter conditions, with some locations recording rainfall well above their September averages.
Outlook for October
High pressure is expected to build south of the UK during the weekend, bringing mainly dry conditions to much of England and Wales. Northern Ireland and Scotland have a greater chance of rain, although widespread wet weather is not expected.
Temperatures are likely to remain slightly above average, while the longer-term forecast remains uncertain. The Met Office outlook indicates an increased chance of mild and wet conditions later in autumn and early winter, although long-range forecasts carry considerable uncertainty.