Deep Depression Over Bay of Bengal Likely to Intensify Into Severe Cyclonic Storm, Andhra Coast on Alert
A deep depression over the east-central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal is forecast to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm, with the Andhra Pradesh coast facing a possible landfall around October 28, 2026, according to the latest cyclone bulletin.
The system was located at 15.1°N latitude and 91.0°E longitude at 0600 UTC on October 25, about 420 kilometres north-northwest of Port Blair in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. It had moved southwestwards at around 5 km/h during the previous six hours before strengthening into a deep depression.
The system is expected to continue moving over the Bay of Bengal while gradually gaining strength. Forecasters indicate that it could develop into a cyclonic storm by early October 26 and intensify into a severe cyclonic storm by early October 27.
Andhra Pradesh Coast Faces Potential Cyclone Landfall
The latest forecast suggests that the system will turn northwestwards after its initial southwestward movement and approach the west-central Bay of Bengal. It is then expected to move towards the Andhra Pradesh coast, with the possibility of crossing the coast between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam around 0600 UTC on October 28.
At landfall, maximum sustained wind speeds could reach 115–125 km/h, with gusts up to 140 km/h, according to the forecast. The system may remain a very severe cyclonic storm before crossing the coast, although its track and intensity could change as it develops.
The forecast bulletin also indicates that the cyclone could weaken after landfall. By October 29, it is expected to downgrade to a depression before weakening further into a well-marked low-pressure area by October 30.
Heavy Rain, Strong Winds and Coastal Flooding Risk
The approaching cyclone could bring dangerous weather conditions to coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh. The bulletin warns that storm surges of around 1.0–1.5 metres above astronomical tide may inundate low-lying areas of the Kakinada and Yanam districts during landfall.
Strong winds, heavy rain and rough seas are additional concerns as the system approaches the coast. Coastal communities, fishermen and people living in low-lying areas should follow official warnings and preparedness instructions issued by local authorities.
Forecast Confidence and Further Development
The bulletin assesses confidence in the system’s current location and intensity as high, while confidence in its future track and intensity remains moderate to high. Meteorological models indicate that the system could continue strengthening over the Bay of Bengal, supported by atmospheric conditions favourable for cyclone development.
However, the exact landfall location, timing and intensity may change with subsequent updates. Residents across coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining areas should monitor the latest advisories from the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Authorities and residents are advised to rely on official updates as the system moves closer to the Indian coastline over the coming days.