A low-pressure area over the east-central and adjoining southeastern Bay of Bengal is likely to intensify into a depression on October 24, 2026, according to the latest tropical weather outlook.
The weather system is expected to strengthen further as it moves west-northwestwards, with the possibility of developing into a deep depression over the west-central Bay of Bengal by the morning of October 26, according to the bulletin.
The system could then continue moving towards the north Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha coasts over the following two days.
Bay of Bengal System Shows Potential for Further Development
The low-pressure area formed under the influence of an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the southeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal. It was still located in the same general region at 3.00 UTC on October 23.
The estimated central pressure of the system is 1010 hPa, with maximum sustained winds of around 10 knots and gusts reaching 20 knots.
Satellite observations show areas of intense to very intense convection over the east-central and adjoining southeastern Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Islands, indicating active weather conditions around the system.
The latest outlook indicates a moderate-to-high level of confidence in the forecast track and intensity of the developing system, although its movement and strengthening could still vary.
Arabian Sea Systems Also Being Monitored
The weather outlook also identifies low-pressure areas over the southeastern Arabian Sea, off the Kerala coast, and over the southwestern Arabian Sea near the Somali coast.
However, the probability of these Arabian Sea systems developing into depressions remains low throughout the 168-hour forecast period.
Meteorological guidance suggests that conditions over the Bay of Bengal are more favourable for further development, with the potential for the system to strengthen during the coming days.
Weather Conditions Could Change Over the Coming Days
The bulletin highlights several atmospheric factors that may support the Bay of Bengal system’s development, including wind patterns, equatorial waves and conditions favourable for cloud formation and intensification.
Forecast models broadly support the formation of a depression on October 24, followed by possible further strengthening. However, differences remain among models regarding the system’s eventual intensity and movement.
The system is expected to be monitored closely as it progresses towards the eastern Indian coastline.
Residents, fishing communities and those involved in maritime activities should follow the latest official forecasts and advisories issued by the relevant meteorological authorities.