# Current condition and forecasts of El Nino and La Nina

- Link: https://www.weather.lk/current-condition-and-forecasts-of-el-nino-and-la-nina/
- Published: 2026-06-28T11:25:48+05:30
- Author: Weather LK

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

# El Niño Likely to Develop, Sri Lanka Rainfall Patterns Continue to Shift

Current global climate observations indicate that **ENSO-neutral conditions** are
presently active across the Pacific Ocean region. According to international climate
monitoring agencies, **equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs)** remain near-
to-above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, signaling the gradual
transition toward an **El Niño event**.

Climate forecast models show that **El Niño is likely to emerge soon, with an 82%
probability during May–July 2026**. The probability is expected to increase significantly,
with a **96% chance that El Niño conditions will persist through the Northern Hemisphere
winter season between December 2026 and February 2027**. This development could 
have considerable impacts on global weather systems, including rainfall distribution,
temperature patterns, and seasonal climate conditions in South Asia.

![Monthly Rainfall Anomaly maps of the months of June(A), July (B) and August (C)
during
El-Nino years (Hapuarachchi et al 2016)](https://blogger.googleusercontent.
com/img/a/AVvXsEhGFg3vfszQbgRA1PomPwQhz5X6A_0YnlN-VUWPSmLEOndX0x6v3y6kzUWUU9Xl5uFGO2boBn7UjHfLBSbidUHL5WZNu9W0p1P1ii_3EGYN3RYqWEeR-
m6Z4UCPyPw17vQsbeopY-Cf7hXkrqQEFzr37kN5wyVMX37L0Xz0CvFEZWGhz_fjSDd2obkHVQ=s16000)

Research conducted by the **Department of Meteorology of Sri Lanka** reveals notable
variations in rainfall patterns across the country during recent months. During **
June 2026**, **below-normal rainfall** was observed in the **Western and Southern
Provinces**, along with several areas in **Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya,
Badulla, and Monaragala districts**. However, **near-normal to above-normal rainfall**
was recorded in many other parts of the island.

In **July 2026**, weather conditions shifted as **above-normal rainfall** was recorded
across the **Western and Southern Provinces**, as well as parts of the **Sabaragamuwa
and North-Western Provinces**, including **Monaragala district**. Meanwhile, several
remaining areas of the country experienced **near-normal or below-normal rainfall
levels**.

During **August 2026**, further changes were observed. **Below-normal rainfall**
was reported in parts of the **Western Province** and central regions of Sri Lanka,
while **near-normal to slightly above-normal rainfall** occurred across most other
regions. These variations were observed while **El Niño conditions continued to 
strengthen globally**.

![](https://wmo.int/sites/default/files/styles/prose_2x/public/2026-06/Global%20Seasonal%
20Climate%20Update%20-%20Jul-Aug%202026%20-%20temperature.png?itok=_KcTdBqi)

![](https://wmo.int/sites/default/files/styles/prose_2x/public/2026-06/Global%20Seasonal%
20Climate%20Update%20-%20Jul-Aug%202026%20-%20rainfall.png?itok=DHBsyEmn)

### Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Update

In addition to ENSO developments, the **Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)** currently remains
in a **neutral phase** across the Indian Ocean basin. Climate models indicate that
neutral IOD conditions are likely to continue **until October 2026**. However, there
is growing potential for the development of a **positive IOD event from November
onward**.

Meteorologists note that current model forecasts show significant variation regarding
both the **timing and strength** of this possible positive IOD event. The combined
influence of **El Niño and IOD conditions** may play an important role in determining
Sri Lanka’s weather patterns in the coming months, making continuous monitoring 
essential for agriculture, water management, and disaster preparedness.

Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures (C)

![](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.
gif)

From August 2025 through February 2026, below-average SSTs was evident across most
of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Beginning in early February 2026, above-average
SSTs emerged in the far eastern equatorial Pacific. Since mid-April 2026, above-
average
equatorial SSTs have increased across the central to eastern Pacific Ocean.

Niño Region SST Departures (oC) Recent Evolution

![](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta_c.
gif)

SST Departures (oC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last Four Weeks

![](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.
gif)

Global SST Departures (oC) During the Last Four Weeks (Traditional SST Anomalies)

![](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/gsstanim.
gif)

During the last four weeks, above-average SSTs were prevalent over most of the 
global oceans. Equatorial SSTs were nearto-above average in the Atlantic and Indian
Oceans. In the equatorial Pacific, positive SSTs were amplified from the DateLine
to the eastern Pacific.

Change in Weekly SST Departures over the Last Four Weeks
During the last four weeks,
positive equatorial SST anomaly changes were observed across the central and eastern
Pacific Ocean and in the western Indian Ocean. Negative changes were evident in 
most of the Atlantic Ocean and in the far western Pacific Ocean.